New Iowa Poll Places Ron Paul Firmly in First, with 25%
2011
Congressman Ron Paul is leading by a significant margin in Iowa, according to preliminary results of a new TeleResearch poll.
Revolution PAC, the Super PAC formed to support presidential candidate Ron Paul, has received early data from the commissioned Iowa poll. The TeleResearch survey is the first to incorporate disaffected Democrats and Independents who will not vote to reelect Obama and will instead crossover to participate in the Iowa Republican Caucus, as well as likely Republican caucus-goers.
Survey sample size is approximately 2,900, with almost 700 likely Republican caucus-goers. Indiana’s TeleResearch Corp., which has been polling voters for more than 18 years, reports that the margin of error is less than 3%.
Factoring in both Republican caucus-goers and disaffected Democrats and Independents who’ve indicated that they will participate in the Iowa Republican Caucus, Ron Paul leads at 25%, with an approximate 4-point advantage over Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain.
Factoring in only Republicans voters, Ron Paul is in a three-way dead heat for the lead, with Paul and Cain tied and Gingrich trailing by 1 point.
The poll also reveals that more than 27% of all respondents – Democrats, Republicans and Independents – stated that an interventionist foreign policy is the greatest threat to long-term peace and national security.
Full analysis of the results will be posted tomorrow at http://RevolutionPAC.com.
(Photo courtesy Gage Skidmore.)
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[...] leads at 25%, with an approximate 4-point advantage over Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain. Source: Revolution PAC While some might dismiss this because it was commissioned by supporters of Ron Paul, it does not [...]
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[...] source: http://www.revolutionpac.com [...]
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It’s only been a week and FOX News is already fabricating their own Iowa statistics. They have Newt at 25% and Paul at 18% with 401likely Republican caucusgoers. I hope Ron Paul blows it out of the water just so I can watch the media collectively implode.
I dropped this on herman cains fb wall
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bypLwI5AQvY
ahahahahahahahaha
This country NEEDS Ron Paul. Simple as that.
Good idea commissioning your own poll. We cited some of the results in a blog post at http://www.thelunchbreakblog.com/news-commentary/2011/11/23/three-reasons-ron-paul-might-steal-iowa-caucus.html
Ron Paul’s ascendancy reminds me of the Ronald Regan campaigns. The party that now brags about Regan fought conservatives tooth and nail right up to the floor fight at the convention, which resulted in that unholy compromise of making George H.W. Bush the VP nominee. The party hacks and the media laughed the Gipper off as just an actor, a dreamer and clearly unelectable. Today, despite the groundswell of support for Ron Paul, the party hacks and the pundits in the media call the good doctor an unelectable fringe candidate. However, after my experience of campaigning for Ronald Reagan for almost 12 years, I know what is possible on a third run for the presidency. We the People will have our say and the establishment will once again be dumbfounded.
Ron Paul polls in 1 st almost all latest polls in Iowa because of the poll margin off error , if u know no one who supports him and you live in iowa so what? it’s a poll throughout Iowa not your family. What’s bullshit is this latest online poll they did just to silence the actual Bloomberg poll that has Ron Paul in first so they can prop up sellout ,money laundering, embezzling newt pillsbury doughboy terrorist Gingrich .
I am a party line dem but i would vote outside my party if Ron Paul runs under the REPBULCAN ticket for the PRESIDNET of the USA
DEMS 4 PAUL
//mindless emotional drunk rant on
Not everyone follows everything that happens in the world. They generally concern themselves with what affects them directly. With that in mind I believe that is how people find themselves either voting Dem/Rep/Ind….. when it all comes down to it EVERYONE with a fully functioning brain wants to be free from control freaks and tyrants. (opinion) Reps see Gov. as the bigger tyant, where as Dems see Corporations. Vise-versa for who will protect them from tyrant control. Ron P. does not defend Goverment or Corporation rights but individual rights as the measuring stick (Constitution on this side) and that Gov/Corp can exist so long as they do not cross that golden line.
The fear I have is thinking that Ron Paul is to perfect and was gromed (30 years) for this very election. Yeah, I’m not mentally stable……
//rant off
I’m all for Ron Paul, but why is this saying he’s in first when all other polls, including the one on ClearPolitics shows he’s clearly in 3rd? Assuming this poll is false, it can be a not-so-good thing for voters, thinking we’re in the clear in some way when your not.
There is something not quite right about this survey. It looks like it might have been doctored or polished.
Here are some of the oddities.
They’ve left out the figure for the Undecideds. I added up the figures for all the candidates and they added up to a perfect 100.
That’s very odd.
First, because of rounding, it’s very rare that adding up all the totals for a poll ends up equaling exactly 100.
Second, the folks who said they were undecided were obviously not counted because if they had the final totals of all candidates MINUS the Undecideds would total less than 100. By not including the Undecideds in the final results, it’s not an accurate reflection of the candidates’ standings. Moreover, it becomes impossible to compare the survey with other surveys to assess trend lines and narrow the cumulative margins of error.
I hope the survey folks take a second look at this data. I suspect, when they do, they will realize that the survey loses a lot of credibility because of these oddities, and they will move to correct them. And, of course, including those Undecideds will alter downward the percentages for the other candidates, since their size relative to the whole number of respondents will then shrink. I’d hate to think that they deliberately removed the Undecided figure in order to inflate the figures for the candidates, Ron Paul in particular.
I hope someone who is comfortable with what I’m talking about has a chance to read this, and will be able to get the correct results posted.
In addition, the margin of error figures are not clear. In the body of the text they report “the margin of error is less than 3%.” But in the chart for the larger 846-person sample it says as big as life that the margin of error is 3.37%. In addition, if you check most professional surveys, they refer to the margin of error in terms of points, not percentage.
Finally what’s the margin of error for the smaller 678-person sample, for which they give separate figures toward the bottom of the page? If I run that number through American Research Group’s Margin of Error calculator at http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html I get a margin of error of +/-3.76 points. Is that, in fact, that smaller sample’s margin of error?
This is really a bit embarrassing; I hope they fix this.
Sincerely yours,
Charles H. Riggs, III
Criggs, you are so very correct. This is an extremely suspect survey to say the least!
This survey does come across as a very greasy attempt to massage the message of a rather small data sampling to extoll the ascension of Ron Paul.
Shame, shame indeed. How stupid do these poll folks think we are???
Nice! So happy they included Independents in this go around.
We’re not getting a voice, but we certainly are planning to vote.
I reposted this story on my site to get the word out!
All i suggest is that Ron Paul is showing us how we, as citizens, can form coalitions and support a cause and more than likely find people who agree with us. Truth in news? Coalitions to support ideological causes? It sound like something we as supporters can do. Simply talking to people over phone, webpage, radio, or anything like Skype can halp and get the word out. I see demand for it! So why not reach?
Why haven’t we seen any more news networks keeping good coverage on politics? We’ve all been focused on entertainment for so long, keeping the general public more entangled with which celebrity did what, who was voted off the island, who won American Idol, that we haven’t created a demand in the media so really show us in depth what has been happening in D.C.
I think generally what we need are more news networks that will actually do their job and transfer raw news instead of cramping it full of rhetoric. The people want the facts and i think it’s about time we start showing the people everything that is happening.
This is healthier for the citizens and healthier for the nation. The more ideals and viewpoints on these issues the better off we’ll be. Each ideologically based cause is convergent to others in one way or another, somehow or someway.
We need to reach the people’s interest through radio shows, news coverage etc. Yet we are letting a third party candidate Ron Paul (a voice from the community) settle with coverage hosted by others with different viewpoints. This is good to an extent until they just decide to give him lime light. Same thing with other politicians or activists with ideological based cause to be concerned, worried, planning, acting. Media should be about what the people want to hear not what that particular media outlet wants to be heard only.
I say we help Paul’s cause for a free market and demonstrate how demand for a fresh information can give birth to new media outlets that are in it for what news coverage really is.
Anyone like the idea of a Skype broadcast/podcast? Radio show? Why not create a coalition of people with common interest (like around Ron Paul) to spread news fairly and truly analyze all viewpoints?
Truth, Community, and Freedom is my cause.
Samuel R. Thomas
Undergraduate in Physics
Ron will only keep ganging strength but as some one else on here said, we can not let up.
We do not need to take anything for granted at this point. The big bankers and the biased media are going to have a bat spat make no mistake about it. They will pull every under handed trick in the book. But if we keep contributing and calling he will be our next president.
doesn’t the “almost 700 likely Republican caucus-goers” trouble anyone other than me?
Explain?
President Ron Paul sounds good to me. I’m in. I plan to be a part of the National delegation to nominate Dr. Paul and make history. Can you imagine all of us at the convention in Florida voting for Dr. Paul. Everyone find out what the process is in your state and go for it. It will be a blast to have us all together. C’mon and get moving. Prepare to take the country back.
Time to double down. Let there be light between us and the establishment shills. This is no time to kneel the football, we need to run the score up and make them pay for what they have done to us. Nothing less than a 25 point lead will be sufficient! Remember the delegates are awarded proportionally until April 1st! That’s when they try to fool us into thinking it’s won, and BAM… they pull the rug out. We need to run up the score!!!
Donate as much as you can to the campaign and to Revolution PAC RIGHT NOW! and then get your ass on the phones to Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada! PUUUUUUUUSH!
The Democrats always say, “loves big government, loves taxes, loves the IRS, loves inflation, hates our troops, loves Muslims, loves the Patriot Act, loves TARP, loves banker bailouts, loves licking the boots off tyrants, loves globalism and loves the New World Disorder.”
http://i51.tinypic.com/zk4bhs.jpg Recycle Government .! Ron Paul for Liberty the Year 2012 the Place WHITE HOUSE
Knew it all along.
The typical Ron Paul Hater…Hates the Constitution, hates freedom, loves
big government, loves taxes, loves the IRS, loves inflation loves war, hates our
troops, loves killing innocent people-especially Muslims, loves the Patriot Act,
loves TARP, loves banker bailouts, loves licking the boots of tyrants, loves
globalism and loves the New World Disorder.
Ron Paul supporters will never vote for anyone else because the rest are all
the same and Republicans cannot win without his supporters
votes.
Yes! RON PAUL 2012 … THAT DAY IS APPROACHING!
Fellow supporters out there, ignore this news! Continue to act as you did a few months ago when every victory was ignored or marginalized. Keep the fire alive. Do not grow complacent. Please, please, please donate all the money you can.
i GUESS THE MAIN STREAM MEDIA WONT PUBLISH THIS EITHER FOR THIS IS EITHER SOME KIND OF HACKING OF POLLS OR NOT CREDIBLE SOURCE.. OR THE REAL REASON THE MEDIA MOGULS DONT WANT YOU TO HAVE A SAY IN THIS ELECTION. THEY WANT TO PUSH THEIR CANDIDATE NOT YOURS.
2 way race now in gop primary, Ron Paul vs Status Quo. If the gop does not nominate Ron Paul. Then the gop will elect obama/bush status quo! reg republican ,get involved, Ron Paul 2012
Let’s see what happens after tonight’s debate in relation to foreign policy. That’s if he gets some time in. Sure they will try to drill him on the AEI Iran report. The AEI has been spreading propaganda since the early 2000′s. If they’ve been so certain of a nuclear Iran since that time and it just so happens to be 2011, almost 2012. When will they take a hint.
HELP RON Paul reach a MILLION Likes on his Facebook Page by the end of the year! This is 100% grassroots support so tell all your friends!!! http://www.facebook.com/events/203786723029474/
On motivation, I have to give Paul’s supporters and A+. With regard to political acumen, that’s an entirely different story. Ron Paul is to politics as Harold Camping is to theology.